Institutional
Research materials for allocators and partners
Shock Engine is documented to be checked, not taken on trust: parameters fixed on Bitcoin, criteria set in advance, placebo and out-of-sample tests, disclosed rule changes, and a manifest that ties every figure to code and data.
Key figures
BTC/ETH portfolio
50/50 without rebalancing, 2018-09-01 → 2026-09-30.
Historical simulation after modeled transaction costs. Not live performance.
Materials
What is available
Institutional dossier
Strategy and how it was tested; a framework for executing large notional drawn from the market-impact literature; all 1,150 historical executions since 2020 replayed on real market data; execution costs, capacity and forward-looking estimates; what we got wrong along the way; risks and what remains to be proven.
Research paper
Design, statistical framework, results, robustness, falsification of the short-entry condition, residual alpha against trend strategies, limitations and the pre-registered forward test, with references.
Return series
Daily returns and equity of both markets and the portfolio, monthly and annual returns, drawdown episodes and rolling correlations, as CSV.
Reproducibility manifest
Code commit, dataset hashes, parameter hash, cost assumptions and random seeds. The research code regenerates the same files from the same data.
Studies and verdicts
Event studies, random-entry placebos, delayed entries, walk-forward, parameter neighborhoods and the transfer to Ethereum.
Every table behind the figures, including the reconciliation with the validated backtests and all 40 consistency checks, is in the full numerical report (HTML). On request: trade-level files, a walkthrough of the backtest engine, and the earlier research history.
Limits
What is not done yet
Stated plainly, so that it can be weighed.
- Live track recordnot available; live results will be reported separately from the simulation, from their own start date
- Forward validationof the short-entry condition, pre-registered, observation from 2026-10-12; not yet for the calm-regime restriction
- Capacity and market impactcosts measured on Binance perpetuals for all 1,150 historical executions since 2020 (see the institutional dossier); not yet measured on Hyperliquid, the intended venue, and our own impact needs live trading; turnover about 43× the capital a year
- Slippage and fundingnot in the headline figures; with commissions doubled the Sharpe is 1.88, with historical funding 1.97
- Independent verificationno third-party audit of the research or of results
- Time out of sample. The parameters were selected on BTC data that overlaps the reported period, and the two entry conditions (calm regime, short-side trend) were set in October 2026 with knowledge of BTC and ETH data; the walk-forward study covers 2020–2026 only.
Important information. All performance figures on this site are hypothetical: they come from a historical simulation of fixed rules, after modeled commissions, and do not represent actual trading. Simulated results have inherent limitations. They benefit from hindsight in the design of the rules, they do not reflect slippage, funding, market impact or the liquidity of a real account, and past simulated performance does not predict future results.
Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to provide investment management services.